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Analysis: UFC 85 fights still show promotion's unpredictability

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By Pramit Mohapatra

The UFC is considered MMA's top promotion for a number of reasons but depth of talent is a major one. If you want a concrete example of the promotion's depth, take a look at how the betting favorites did at the O2 Arena on Saturday.

Of the eight UFC 85 fights with odds listed by BetUs.com, the favorites went a paltry 3-5. This unpredictability is what keeps the UFC so exciting, reminding fans of the same parity that makes America's top pro sports league -- the NFL -- so popular.

As I've said in the past, when it comes to the UFC, "any given Saturday" is just as apt a phrase as the more commonly heard "any given Sunday" line we often hear when discussing the NFL.

And, no other MMA promotion in America can deliver this parity because no other promotion has the same roster of talent that exists in the UFC. In fact, a cursory look through results in other "major" promotions shows that betting favorites easily win most of the time.

The biggest upset (based on the odds) on Saturday was delivered by Matt Wiman, who was listed at +350 while his heavily favored opponent, Thiago Tavares, was listed at -500. However, Wiman, a TUF 5 alum, showed impressive jiu-jitsu escapes on the ground in the first round and a strong chin in the second round before completely overwhelming Tavares with his fists to crumple the Brazilian.

Controversy played a part in two of the upsets. Nate Marquardt, a slight favorite at -170 against Thales Leites (listed at +140), lost by the unusual score of 28-27 on two judges' scorecards because "The Great" had two points deducted for illegal strikes. Marquardt was fairly dominant throughout the fight and probably would have won without the point deductions (assuming the fight had played out the same way.) One of the point deductions (a supposed strike to the back of Leites' head) was itself controversial.

And, in the night's other controversial upset, favorite Brandon Vera (-200) lost to underdog Fabricio Werdum (+160) in what many considered a quick stoppage. While Werdum controlled the fight leading up to the stoppage, MMA fans know how quickly tides can turn in the Octagon. Unfortunately, Vera was never given the opportunity to illustrate this point and was "upset" by the world-renowned BJJ expert Werdum, who is quickly shooting up the UFC's thin heavyweight ranks.

Upsets in the UFC are now commonplace. As MMA continues to grow, new fans and new fighters are being drawn to the sport. The influx of both leads to betting lines that in essence may be meaningless. After all, casual fans, who may not know much about the sport, most likely place bets based on name recognition (and not actual ability.) Simultaneously, new, young fighters with unscouted but otherworldly skills continue to emerge. While these fighters have short resumes and are unknown to the casual fan, they are every bit as capable as their veteran foes. And no organization is better than the UFC at finding the hidden gems and the stars of tomorrow.

As fans and bettors are quickly finding out, this combination leads to the perfect storm both inside the Octagon as well as at the betting parlors.

Comments

iamphoenix's picture

it's been a while since you

it's been a while since you wrote something! i thought you retired. good article.

any given saturday, i hear pacino is interested...

Underboss MMAfia

Head of the West Coast Family

Fight Ticker's picture

Ahhh retirement...Why must

Ahhh retirement...Why must you tempt me so, Phoenix?

Pramit: Great analysis.

Pramit: Great analysis. That's why I never bet on MMA.

Fight Ticker's picture

I don't bet on the sport

I don't bet on the sport either but from what the bettors like TBC say, the only smart bet is betting on the underdog and I think UFC 85 proves this point. There was a lot of money to be made betting on the 'dogs this past Saturday...

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