Analysis: Whether to bet on favorites in non-UFC fights is an easy decision
By Pramit Mohapatra
This weekend, three MMA promotions not named UFC -- EliteXC, DREAM, and Adrenaline MMA -- held events throughout the world. And, BodogLife.com had betting lines for a total of 15 fights between the three events.
Of those 15 fights, 13 of them were won by the favorites. The only two underdogs to win were KJ Noons, who defeated Yves Edwards to retain the EliteXC 160-pound title with stunning efficiency, and Melvin Manhoef, who defeated an over-the-hill sentimental favorite in Kazushi Sakuraba.
Of the 13 favorites that won, nine did so by stoppage while only four won by decision. But, even the four who won by decision did so by unanimous decision.
So, what does knowing that favorites went 13-2 and won fairly comfortably this weekend tell us? That non-UFC promotions truly don't have the depth of talent that the UFC has. As I mentioned last week, at UFC 85 the favorites won only three out of the eight fights listed on BetUs.com. In other words, fewer than 40% of the favorites won. And, this is no exception. As those who've followed the UFC closely over the last couple of years know, UFC fights these days are unpredictable, thanks both to depth of talent and clever matchmaking.
For non-UFC promotions, however, there simply is not the pool of fighters to choose from to consistently create the parity that the UFC enjoys. So, while second-tier promotions like the EliteXC and DREAM were each able to produce just one upset based on even matchmaking, a league like Adrenaline MMA that debuted this weekend was able to create none.
As the sport grows, it will be interesting to see whether the influx of new talent will create deeper non-UFC promotions or whether the UFC will continue to be the destination for the best fighters in MMA. If the UFC continues with its stranglehold on talent, the smart money would seem to suggest betting the underdog on UFC cards and the favorites on non-UFC cards.
Comments
wow.. this is GREAT
wow.. this is GREAT FANTASTIC ADVISE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
rampage has gotta be the favorite in the next ufc right... but i love forrests heart!... according to your article i should bet forrest.. and you know what... i will!!!!
www.myspace.com/theklubking
so mayhem wasnt favored?
so mayhem wasnt favored? not a miller fan necessarily, but besides a lot of internet vids of jacare submitting people in a gi, i didnt really know thing 1 about him
Jacare has trained with
Jacare has trained with Xtreme Couture to help round out his skills, his relationship with Randy has gone back to 2006 when they had a draw in their grappling match.
Ticker - This is a very
Ticker -
This is a very slippery slope. UFC 85 was the exception, not the rule. At UFC 84, 9 of 11 favorites (Penn, W Silva, Machida, T Silva, Sokoudjou, Clementi, Yoshida, Kim, and Carwin) covered their fights, while only two dogs (Reljic, Palhares) won. And Palhares was only +105, if I remember correctly, so not a huge dog, either. At 83, 8 favorites covered ( Velasquez, Maia, Danzig, Bisping, MacDonald, Quarry, Franklin, and St. Pierre), while three dogs pulled off upsets (Day, Goulet, Clementi). Then, you go back to UFN 13, and just six favorites (Aurelio, Gamburyan, Sotiropolous, Guida, Diaz, and Hamill) won, while 5 dogs were able to cover (Maynard, Neer, A Johnson, Irvin, and Alves).
Each card must be researched as it's own entity. You have to get a feel for the fighters. Watching old fights, checking out the opponents of their opponents, and triple-checking the lines on every site you can find are good ways to figure out which way to go. And when you find that "can't miss underdog", you feel like a million bucks. While I do agree that it is harder to find this "can't miss underdog" on smaller shows, you can find "can't miss favorites". I put out $300 on Rory Markham this weekend, in an effort to win $50. That is the type of can't miss favorite that the smaller shows are packed with. When I saw that Markham had a 20 pound advantage over Jay Ellis, I was licking my chops.
The UFC is a completely different animal. As Pramit said, last card, the dogs were all over the favorites. But that doesn't mean to go out and throw hard-earned money on Forrest Griffin, just because he is an underdog, Fighting Duffmen. Looking at the early lines for that fight, it seems to me that the Griffin fans are going to keep the line very close. One site I saw has the fight as Rampage (-260) - Griffin (200). I'm pretty surprised Rampage is that small of a favorite at this point. Forrest's gregarious personality and reality show dominance over Rampage may keep the line down, which is great if you think Rampage is going to win. You can never count out Griffin's heart, though, as the Duffmen said. Basically, all I am saying is that Pramit hit the nail on the head when he said the UFC is unpredictable, but it sure is fun trying...
Very good point TBC. I think
Very good point TBC. I think it's dangerous to apply the general rule to any one fight.
In other words, if you were to bet on a number of UFC fights, it might be wise to go with the underdogs. However, if you were to bet on just one UFC fight, it is exactly what TBC says -- unpredictable. The favorite or the underdog could win that one particular fight.
I feel more confident going with the favorite on a non-UFC fight but again these are general trends and best applied when betting on a group of fights rather than any single fight.
I'll be tracking how favorites vs. underdogs do on UFC and non-UFC cards henceforth and maybe we can uncover any trends, if they do indeed exist...
As TBC rightly points out, my comments reflect analysis on two weekends of events.